Analysis, Bearing Witness &The View from Judgement Day 

In this talk, Shahid Bolsen lays out how he approaches analysis with one goal: being useful. He explains how to strip events down to the clean chain of actions, identify the real interests of each actor, map capabilities and constraints, and then estimate what moves are most likely to follow. He also breaks down how to read “bargaining chips” in any conflict or negotiation: what can be granted or withheld, what cannot be replaced cheaply, what creates real trade-offs, and what turns into a trap when used. From there, he explains how to detect a power’s long-run direction by watching resource flows, institutional continuity, red lines, and the infrastructure that quietly shapes tomorrow’s leverage. Finally, he explains the mental stance behind all of it: speaking as a witness accountable for every claim, detached from audience theatre, and focused on consequences for real people. Topics covered: probability thinking • incentives & constraints • signalling vs commitment • time & sequencing • leverage & trade-offs • long-run agendas • disciplined truthfulness